Resource Allocation and Simulation Based Planning in Port Expansion Projects: Longitudinal Tracking

Abstract

This study investigates the long-term efficacy of simulation-based planning in maritime logistics by examining resource allocation across a ten-year longitudinal horizon. Port expansion projects represent massive, capital-intensive investments that are highly susceptible to market volatility, stochastic operational disruptions, and structural shifts in global shipping networks. While simulation models, particularly discrete-event systems, are routinely employed to justify and design these expansions, there is a distinct lack of empirical follow-up assessing whether these models accurately project resource utilization and bottlenecks over multi-year horizons. To address this gap, this paper presents a comprehensive longitudinal analysis of a major container terminal expansion, tracking operational performance from 2014 to 2024. By comparing the initial simulation-based planning forecasts with actual high-frequency operational telemetry, we evaluate the predictive accuracy of simulated allocations for berths, quay cranes, yard storage, and internal transport fleets. Our findings reveal that while simulation-based planning effectively mitigates the risk of asset over-provisioning during stable periods, it consistently underestimates structural feedback loops and bottleneck migration under peak demand regimes. This research provides concrete evidence of where simulation models deviate from real-world execution, offering a validated framework for port authorities to implement dynamic calibration protocols. The insights derived from this study contribute to the transition from static, capital-focused planning models to adaptive, execution-linked digital twins in maritime infrastructure development.